郑秉文：仅计算三支柱+全国社保，预计今年底同口径基金余额将超过20万亿，占GDP比重将超过14%

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant growth in China's social pension reserves during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a notable development in the asset-based pension system [3][7]. Group 1: Pension Fund Growth - By the end of 2020, the fund balance, excluding "commercial insurance annuities," was 12.15 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.0% of GDP [3][7]. - The fund balance is projected to increase to 18.4 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, raising its GDP share to 13.7% [3][7]. - It is expected that by the end of this year, the fund balance will exceed 20 trillion yuan, with its GDP share surpassing 14% [3][7]. Group 2: Advantages of Asset-Based Pension System - China possesses unique advantages in addressing the challenges of an aging population, such as having a sovereign pension fund, which many developed countries lack [3][7]. - The insurance market in China ranks second globally, indicating significant potential for "commercial insurance annuities" [3][7]. - The coverage of the third pillar of the pension system has exceeded 10% within three years of nationwide implementation, outperforming many developed and transitioning countries that have taken over twenty years to achieve lower coverage rates [3][7]. Group 3: Challenges in Pension System Reform - The rapid pace of population aging presents a significant challenge [4][8]. - The current low-interest-rate environment poses additional difficulties for the pension system [4][8]. - Despite having the world's largest social security system, China's pension asset reserve is significantly lower than that of developed countries, which average over 50% of GDP, with some exceeding 100% or even 200% [4][8].