‘SUPERB ECONOMIST': Could Kevin Hassett be the next Fed chair?

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is highly anticipated, with expectations for a rate cut due to recent economic data indicating job losses and stable inflation [1][3]. Economic Data - A loss of 32,000 private sector jobs is highlighted as a significant concern, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data met expectations, preventing further pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain high rates [2][3]. - Current working capital loan rates for small businesses range from 8% to 12%, which is challenging for their growth and hiring capabilities [2][3]. Federal Reserve Expectations - There is a strong expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in the upcoming meeting, with discussions around a potential 50 basis point cut if inflation had shown a more significant downturn [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve appears to be prioritizing the labor market over inflation concerns, especially in light of recent job losses [4]. Economic Outlook - Optimism is expressed regarding the U.S. economy, with projections of growth rates closer to 4%, which is considered robust [8]. - The anticipated economic benefits from tax policies and increased productivity from AI are expected to manifest strongly in the first and second quarters of the following year [5][8]. Leadership Considerations - Kevin Hasset is viewed as a strong candidate for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, with a focus on supply-side economic policies that align with the Trump administration's agenda [10][11]. - Concerns exist regarding Hasset's close ties to the president, but his economic perspective is seen as beneficial for addressing disinflationary pressures [9][10].