商敬国：AI可以帮助精算师管理好长寿风险

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Shang Jingguo highlights the limitations of domestic business models in the actuarial profession, particularly the preference for life insurance over pension insurance, leading to a shrinking annuity market and a lack of professional talent in the field [1][5]. Group 1: Actuarial Profession and Pension Insurance - Shang Jingguo calls for actuaries to explore the pension and commercial annuity sectors to address the professional gaps in international reinsurance risk sharing and longevity risk bonds in the international capital market [1][5]. - The shrinking annuity market is attributed to fewer participants and a lack of accumulated professional talent, which is exacerbated by the current focus on life insurance [1][5]. Group 2: Impact of AI and Digital Technology - In the context of global aging, Shang emphasizes the role of AI in managing longevity risk, suggesting that traditional actuarial pricing methods should evolve to incorporate more precise risk models that consider various factors [1][5]. - The focus on investment-linked annuities and variable annuities shifts the risk management responsibility to the insured, necessitating better management of policyholder expectations and risk matching on the liability side [1][5]. Group 3: Global Aging and Financial Tools - Shang suggests the exploration of more diverse global financial tools beyond reinsurance risk management, as the phenomenon of global longevity presents a larger sample pool for risk assessment [2][6]. - The potential for managing longevity risk through AI technology indicates significant growth opportunities for annuity insurance in the future [2][6].