华侨银行：2026年上半年大宗商品展望 黄金、白银看涨 原油、棕榈油趋软

Group 1: Precious Metals Outlook - The report from OCBC predicts that precious metals, particularly gold and silver, will continue to rise due to structural demand changes and supportive macroeconomic conditions, with gold expected to reach a target price of $4,800 per ounce by the end of 2026 [1][2] - Gold prices have surged by 60% year-to-date, while silver has seen a remarkable increase of 100%, leading the commodity market [2] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainties [2] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver is expected to outperform gold due to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, with strong demand from the photovoltaic, electric vehicle, and electronics sectors [2] - The forecast for silver prices suggests they could reach $64.86 per ounce by the end of 2026, supported by tight supply and inflows into ETFs [2] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - OCBC holds a cautious outlook on the energy market, predicting average prices for WTI and Brent crude oil to decline to $59 and $62 per barrel, respectively, in 2026 [3] - The oil market is currently facing a supply surplus, with OECD commercial crude oil inventories expected to exceed 3.1 billion barrels by July 2026 [3] - Factors contributing to the supply increase include OPEC+'s gradual removal of voluntary production cuts and strong output growth from non-OPEC+ countries, while global oil demand growth remains steady but insufficient to absorb new production [3] Group 4: Palm Oil Market Trends - The report anticipates a moderate price correction for crude palm oil (CPO), with an average price forecast of 4,200 Malaysian Ringgit per ton in 2026, slightly lower than the 2025 estimate [4] - The easing of global vegetable oil market tensions is attributed to recovering production in Indonesia, despite plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio, which will provide some demand support [4]