国联民生证券孔蓉:AI投资紧盯五大关键变量,明年上半年是重要观察期
Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-12-06 07:59

Core Insights - The AI sector is currently undergoing a phase of consolidation, with renewed discussions about the potential for an "AI bubble" [1] - The first half of 2024, particularly Q1 to Q2, is identified as a critical window for observing trends and investment opportunities in the AI industry [1] Group 1: Key Variables Impacting AI Investment - The first key variable is the fundamental enhancement of AI model capabilities, particularly in memory and personalization, which could significantly increase user engagement and willingness to pay [1] - The second key variable is the continuous evolution of multimodal capabilities, which includes advancements in 3D technology, crucial for applications requiring complex interactions with the physical world [2] - The third variable is the renewed emphasis on data value, with high-quality, specialized data assets becoming increasingly important as AI models advance [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Market Conditions - The fourth variable is the ongoing demand for infrastructure, including traditional hardware and emerging energy support, with significant opportunities remaining in AI infrastructure development [2] - The fifth variable is the changing global liquidity environment, which is expected to positively influence market trends, particularly in the technology sectors of both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] Group 3: Overall Market Outlook - The current period is viewed as one of consolidation and positioning, with expectations for a positive boost in the technology sector as liquidity conditions improve and AI technologies evolve [3] - There is a general confidence in the long-term development of the Chinese technology industry, with recent IPOs in the semiconductor and tech sectors generating renewed market interest [3]