聚酯行业周度报告

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry is experiencing a divergence with a strong raw material end and weak downstream demand, leading to price increases for PX and PTA due to tight supply, while prices for end products like polyester filament are declining due to insufficient orders [1] Group 1: Price Trends in the Industry - Crude oil prices showed mixed trends, with Brent averaging $62.97 per barrel, a slight decrease of 0.02%, while WTI increased by 0.58% to $58.87 per barrel [2] - PX prices rose to an average of $842.07 per ton, up 1.78% due to tight supply conditions [2] - PTA prices increased to 4690 yuan per ton, a rise of 1.41%, supported by cost factors and a balanced supply-demand situation [2] - MEG prices fell to 3859 yuan per ton, down 0.87%, driven by pessimistic market sentiment [2] - Polyester chip prices saw a slight increase, with semi-dull chips averaging 5587 yuan per ton, up 0.72% [3] - Polyester filament prices declined due to weak demand, with POY 150D/48F averaging 6475 yuan per ton, down 1.60% [3] Group 2: Supply and Inventory Situation - The domestic polyester industry produced 156.35 million tons this week, with a utilization rate of 87.47%, slightly up from the previous week [4] - Polyester chip inventory decreased to 11.76 days, while polyester filament inventory increased significantly due to poor sales [5] - The overall inventory for finished products increased to 24.62 days, indicating a buildup of stock amid declining orders [5] Group 3: Profit Analysis - The overall profit in the polyester industry is shifting towards the raw material end, with most finished products experiencing worsening profits [6] - PTA's theoretical gross profit is -283.31 yuan per ton, while MEG's integrated profit is -1034 yuan per ton, indicating significant losses [7] - Polyester bottle chips saw a slight profit recovery, while polyester filament profits dropped sharply, particularly for POY and FDY [7] Group 4: Market Outlook - PX prices are expected to remain strong, while PTA is projected to fluctuate between 4500-4700 yuan per ton due to tight supply-demand balance [8] - Polyester chip prices are anticipated to range between 5550-5650 yuan per ton, while polyester filament prices are expected to remain weak [8] - Key focus areas include geopolitical impacts on oil prices, spring order inquiries, and the progress of new production facilities [9][10]