“抢铜大战”来了！大量铜正被运往美国 高盛：铜将成为“新石油”

Core Insights - LME copper prices surged past $11,500 per ton, reaching a new high of $11,641.5 per ton, marking a year-to-date increase of 32.77% [2][5] - The price surge was triggered by Mercuria's $460 million withdrawal of over 40,000 tons of copper from LME's Asian warehouses, affecting about 24% of the exchange's registered inventory [2][5][7] - The copper market is experiencing a structural supply crisis driven by various factors, including U.S. tariff expectations and increasing demand from AI infrastructure and energy transition [2][8] Market Dynamics - Mercuria's withdrawal led to a significant increase in LME copper cancellation receipts, with 56,875 tons canceled on that day, representing 35% of total inventory [7] - Analysts suggest that the expectation of future copper shortages or price increases is prompting market participants to secure physical copper in advance [7][12] Arbitrage Opportunities - The primary driver of the copper "scramble" is the arbitrage opportunity created by U.S. tariff expectations, with CME copper futures prices significantly higher than LME prices [9][12] - U.S. refined copper imports surged over 100% year-on-year to 1.19 million tons from January to August, with LME inventories rapidly depleting [9][12] Long-term Demand Drivers - The rise in copper prices is supported by structural demand increases from AI and global energy transition initiatives, with predictions of a sixfold increase in copper usage in data centers by 2050 [15][16] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates that renewable energy projects will create an additional annual demand of up to 4.2 million tons of copper by 2030 [15] Supply Constraints - The development of new copper mines is lengthy, often taking nearly 30 years from exploration to commercial production, leading to supply bottlenecks [18][19] - Existing major copper mines are facing declining ore grades and rising extraction costs, contributing to supply instability [18] Market Sentiment - Wall Street analysts are divided on the future of copper prices, with some predicting structural shortages and others cautioning against current price levels being unsustainable [20][24] - Despite differing views on short-term price movements, there is a consensus on the long-term growth of copper demand driven by AI, energy transition, and electrification trends [27]