The Fed's December interest rate meeting could be 'off the charts'

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing a challenging environment characterized by a weakening labor market and rising prices, necessitating careful risk management in its upcoming meetings [3][4][6] - The Fed's decision-making process has become more democratic over time, with a notable shift in dynamics since the Greenspan era, allowing for more open discussions among committee members [7] Group 1: Current Economic Context - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 9 and 10 is expected to address the conflicting risks of labor market weakness and inflation, with policymakers relying on outdated government data due to recent cancellations of employment and inflation reports [3][5] - David Wilcox describes the current economic situation as unprecedented, likening it to driving with a foggy windshield, indicating the complexity and uncertainty faced by the Fed [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The Federal Open Market Committee is currently divided, with some members advocating for interest rate cuts to support the labor market, while others prefer to maintain rates to prevent further inflation [6] - Investors and analysts anticipate a potential quarter-point interest rate cut, marking the third reduction this year, although the Fed chair has indicated that this outcome is not guaranteed [7]