年终盘点｜抢铜浪潮激涌、行业进入超级周期，铜价涨势还能延续多久

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is expected to experience a bullish trend driven by supply-demand tightness, macroeconomic monetary policies, and emerging demand, with prices projected to rise significantly by 2025 [1] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Performance - On December 5, LME copper futures prices rose by 2.2%, reaching a historical high of $11,705 per ton, while domestic Shanghai copper futures approached 93,000 yuan per ton, setting a new record [1] - The A-share copper concept sector has seen an increase of over 70% this year, with individual stocks like Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) and Zijin Mining (601899.SH) experiencing cumulative gains exceeding 100% [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper supply is tightening due to safety incidents in major production areas and mining giants reducing capacity, leading to increased copper prices [1] - Significant production disruptions have occurred in key copper mines, with global copper production expected to grow only by 1.4% this year, resulting in a supply-demand gap of 150,000 tons [2] Group 3: Emerging Demand Factors - The transition to renewable energy is driving explosive demand for copper, particularly in electrical infrastructure upgrades and new energy applications [1][3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that copper usage in data centers will reach between 250,000 to 550,000 tons by 2030, accounting for 1%-2% of global copper demand [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry experts anticipate that structural factors driving copper prices will remain unchanged, suggesting that copper prices will continue to be in an upward trend with limited short-term correction opportunities [5] - The price differential between LME and COMEX has widened to over $600 per ton, indicating strong overseas demand and continued copper flow to the U.S. [6] - The expectation of ongoing economic recovery and liquidity easing will enhance copper's financial attributes, further supporting price increases [6]