BofA’s Hartnett Warns Dovish Fed Rate Cut Imperils Stock Rally

Core Viewpoint - The year-end rally in equities is at risk due to a cautious Federal Reserve outlook on the economy, which may signal a larger-than-expected economic slowdown [1][2] Group 1: Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 Index is close to a record high, with investor confidence in a scenario where the Fed cuts interest rates amid falling inflation and resilient economic growth [1] - Optimism may be tested if the Fed provides dovish signals at the upcoming meeting, potentially indicating a significant economic slowdown [1][2] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - There is a strong market expectation for a quarter-point rate cut at the December 10 meeting, with probabilities rising to over 90% from 60% a month ago [3] - Traders have fully priced in three rate cuts by September 2026 [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 is approximately 0.5% away from its October peak, with seasonal trends typically favoring a year-end rally [4] - Upcoming key jobs and inflation reports pose risks to the market, as these reports were delayed due to a government shutdown [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The US administration is expected to intervene to prevent inflation from rising significantly and to keep the unemployment rate below 5% [5] - Recommendations include buying "inexpensive" mid-cap stocks into 2026, with a focus on sectors linked to the economic cycle such as homebuilders, retailers, REITs, and transportation stocks [5] Group 5: International Equities - A preference for international equities through 2025 has been reiterated, as the S&P 500's performance has lagged behind the MSCI All-Country World ex-US index [6]