中信建投：铜产业链2026年投资机遇

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that copper, as a high-cost-performance conductive metal, is deeply involved in global energy transformation and industrial development, with a growing supply-demand gap expected to drive copper prices higher [1][39] - Global refined copper demand is projected to reach 28.13 million tons, 28.80 million tons, and 29.45 million tons in 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.9%, 2.4%, and 2.3% [1][31][39] - The supply-demand balance indicates a continuous gap of 160,000 tons, 360,000 tons, and 610,000 tons from 2026 to 2028, with an expanding long-term gap that supports upward pressure on copper prices [1][31][39] Group 2 - The LME copper price is expected to gradually rise to $9,800/ton, $10,600/ton, $11,200/ton, and $12,000/ton from 2025 to 2028, driven by the scarcity of copper resources and the upward shift in price levels [1][35][39] - The copper mining sector is expected to see concentrated profits due to the scarcity of copper resources and the rising price levels, making copper mining companies a focal point for investment [1][39] - The global copper exploration budget growth is significantly slowing down, with the total budget for 2024 expected to be only 64% of the previous peak, indicating limited new copper mine discoveries [9][11][15] Group 3 - The copper market is experiencing a supply-driven pricing mechanism, with significant supply disruptions throughout 2025, including incidents at major mines, which have bolstered bullish sentiment [2][18] - Major copper mining companies have reported a decrease in production, with a total reduction of 106,000 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting the vulnerabilities in copper supply [18][20] - The copper market is characterized by a tight balance, with refined copper supply projected to be 27.97 million tons, 28.94 million tons, and 28.84 million tons from 2026 to 2028, reflecting a growth rate of 1.6%, 1.7%, and 1.4% respectively [31][39] Group 4 - The rise of AI and the increasing investment in power infrastructure are expected to significantly boost copper consumption, particularly in the electric power sector [25][27] - The demand for copper in the electric vehicle sector is projected to grow substantially, with copper usage in new energy vehicles expected to reach approximately 201,000 tons by 2025, accounting for 7.4% of global copper consumption [27][28] - The wind and solar energy sectors are also anticipated to contribute to copper demand growth, with projections indicating significant increases in copper usage in these areas from 2025 to 2028 [29][30]