Vistra Stock: Is VST Outperforming the Utilities Sector?

Company Overview - Vistra Corp. is a retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas, providing electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers with a market cap of $24.7 billion [1]. Stock Performance - VST stock reached an all-time high of $219.82 on September 22 and is currently trading 19.9% below that peak [3]. - Over the past three months, VST stock prices have declined by 7.2%, while the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) gained 4.4% during the same period [3]. - Year-to-date, VST stock prices have increased by 27.7% and by 9.2% over the past 52 weeks, compared to XLU's gains of 15.5% in 2025 and 8.7% over the past year [4]. Financial Results - In Q3, Vistra's operating revenues dropped 20.9% year-over-year to approximately $5 billion, missing consensus estimates by nearly 29% [5]. - The company's ongoing adjusted EBITDA grew by 9.9% year-over-year to $1.6 billion, exceeding market expectations [5]. - Vistra generated a strong operating cash flow of $2.6 billion during the quarter [5]. Analyst Ratings - Among 19 analysts covering VST stock, the consensus rating is a "Strong Buy" with a mean price target of $241.28, indicating a 37% upside potential from current price levels [6]. - Vistra has underperformed compared to its peer, NRG Energy, Inc., which saw an 87.7% surge in 2025 and 67.8% returns over the past 52 weeks [6].