突发，黑天鹅！股汇双杀！

Core Viewpoint - A significant "black swan" event occurred in Brazil, leading to a sharp decline in both the stock market and currency, triggered by former President Bolsonaro's endorsement of his son as a candidate for the upcoming presidential election [1]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Brazil's stock market experienced its worst day since 2021, with the Ibovespa index dropping by 4.3% [1]. - The Brazilian currency, the real, depreciated by approximately 2.5% following the news of Bolsonaro's endorsement [1]. - Interest rate swap contracts surged over 50 basis points, indicating a major shift in investor sentiment and a withdrawal of previous bets on Bolsonaro supporting candidate Tarcísio de Freitas [1]. Group 2: Political Context - The market had previously been optimistic about the potential candidacy of Tarcísio de Freitas, viewing him as the best chance for the right-wing to defeat the current leftist president, Lula [2]. - Analysts noted that the right-wing is now more fragmented than before, correcting the previously overly optimistic sentiment in the market [2]. - Discussions about the succession of the right-wing leadership intensified after Bolsonaro began serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn the results of the 2022 election [2]. Group 3: Candidate Dynamics - Flávio Bolsonaro confirmed his father's support and will challenge the current president as a candidate for the Liberal Party [1]. - Despite the speculation around his candidacy, Tarcísio de Freitas has remained cautious, indicating he would only run for president if Bolsonaro explicitly supports him [2]. - Analysts expressed concerns that Flávio Bolsonaro may be less competitive against Lula and that his economic policy expectations are weaker, which could negatively impact Brazilian assets [3].