晦暗不明看美元

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from the International Monetary Fund indicates a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves, dropping from 57.79% to 56.32%, marking a 30-year low and remaining below 60% for 11 consecutive quarters [1] - The U.S. Treasury's report shows a significant decrease in foreign net purchases of U.S. securities, down 94.4% to $51 billion in Q2 2025, a 72.1% drop compared to the average from Q2 2023 to Q1 2025 [1] - Factors such as the U.S. national debt exceeding $38 trillion, unilateral trade policies, and the call for a multipolar currency system are reshaping the international monetary landscape [1] Historical Context of Dollar's Rise - Before World War I, the dollar was not a dominant currency, with the British pound and other currencies holding more significant shares in global reserves [2] - The establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913 accelerated the dollar's internationalization, aided by U.S. banks entering foreign markets and the Federal Reserve's support for dollar-denominated commercial paper [2] - The decline of the pound coincided with the rise of the dollar, as the U.S. became the world's largest creditor by the end of World War I [3] Bretton Woods System - The Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 established a new international monetary order, linking the dollar to gold and other currencies to the dollar, which solidified the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency [8] - The U.S. held a dominant position in the IMF, with 27% voting power, and maintained over 70% of the world's gold reserves, reinforcing the dollar's global influence [8][9] - The Marshall Plan and the Dodge Plan further integrated the dollar into the global economy by providing funds for post-war recovery in Europe and Japan, which in turn increased demand for U.S. exports [10] Current Challenges and Future Outlook - The current international monetary system is facing challenges, including the need for the U.S. to maintain trade deficits to support dollar liquidity, as highlighted by the "Triffin Dilemma" [12] - The future of the dollar's dominance depends on various factors, including the willingness of countries to hold dollar assets and the U.S.'s ability to manage its debt and maintain economic stability [13] - Recent U.S. financial sanctions and trade policies have prompted countries to reconsider their reliance on the dollar, leading to a trend towards bilateral currency transactions [13]