智通财经网·2025-12-06 23:43Market Outlook - Michael Burry expresses an extremely pessimistic outlook for the U.S. stock market, predicting a prolonged bear market similar to that of 2000 in the coming years [3][19] - He believes that the dominance of passive investment (over 50% market share) will lead to a synchronized market decline, making it difficult to protect long positions in the U.S. [4][19] AI Investment Bubble - Burry compares the current AI investment frenzy to the "data transmission bubble" of 2000, highlighting a lag between capital expenditure and market peaks [5][30] - He predicts that Palantir's stock will significantly decline over the next two years, citing unreasonable valuations and an unhealthy financial structure as core reasons [5][21] Palantir's Financial Health - Burry criticizes Palantir for creating billionaires without generating substantial profits, noting that the company's stock-based compensation has led to a high number of wealthy individuals relative to its revenue [26][24] - He points out that Palantir's revenue from government contracts has decreased significantly, as the company shifts focus to enterprise clients amid the AI infrastructure boom [24][21] Google and AI Challenges - Burry warns that AI poses a serious threat to Google's core cash flow from its search business, as AI search is costly compared to traditional search methods [34][35] - He argues that most users will access services through free tiers, with a small percentage willing to pay for large models, leading to a highly commoditized market [35][34] Federal Reserve Critique - Burry holds a sharp critique of the Federal Reserve, stating it has not contributed positively over its century-long existence and advocates for its abolition, suggesting its functions be transferred to the Treasury [2][40][41]