Sugar Prices Slide as the Brazilian Real Weakens

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing downward pressure due to a decline in the Brazilian real, which has fallen to a 7-week low against the dollar, promoting export sales from Brazil's sugar producers [1] - India's sugar production has surged, with a reported increase of +43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) for the October-November period, contributing to lower sugar prices [2] - Brazil's sugar production outlook remains bearish, with Conab raising its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT, and a reported increase of +8.7% year-on-year in the first half of November [3] Price Movements - Sugar prices reached 6-week highs last Friday due to concerns over tighter global supplies, but recent adjustments in production estimates have contributed to price volatility [4] - India's food ministry's decision to allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, down from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, provides some support for sugar prices [5] Production Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [6] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by +3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26, indicating a significant increase in supply [6]