Core Viewpoint - The rise in copper prices in 2025 is attributed to U.S. stockpiling, with concerns over low inventories in non-U.S. regions intensifying following concentrated deliveries in LME copper stocks this week [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The COMEX-LME premium remains significant, averaging around $330 per ton, despite a substantial decline in premiums in Q3 and Q4 compared to Q2 [1] - Citigroup indicates that arbitrage trading between COMEX and LME is directing copper flows to the U.S., which is expected to exacerbate the tight supply of LME copper [1] Group 2: Price Forecasts - Investors are betting on a soft landing for the U.S. economy, which is likely to support prices through macro fund buying, while the supply gap continues to widen [1] - Copper prices are projected to continue rising into early next year, with an average price forecast of approximately $13,000 per ton in Q2, up from the previous October forecast of $12,000 per ton, and an optimistic scenario revised from $14,000 to $15,000 per ton [1] Group 3: Cost Considerations - Over the past decade, the unit exploration cost for global copper mines has increased more than 20 times to over $3,300 per ton, while the investment intensity for new and expanded projects has doubled to over $15,000 per ton [1] - Current price stimulation is expected to push prices up to $12,000 per ton, indicating a significant bottom effect based on previous capital expenditure peaks [1]
套利交易继续推高铜价 明年铜价中枢或站上1.2万美元/吨
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-06 23:59