巴西黑天鹅事件！股市大跌 货币重挫约2.5%

Group 1 - The Brazilian stock market experienced its worst day since 2021, with the Ibovespa index dropping by 4.3% and the currency, the real, depreciating by approximately 2.5% due to former President Bolsonaro's endorsement of his son as a candidate for the upcoming presidential election [1] - Following the announcement, the yield on interest rate swap contracts surged by over 50 basis points, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment and a withdrawal of previous bets on Bolsonaro supporting São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas [1] - Analysts noted that the market had initially hoped for unity within the right-wing camp behind de Freitas, but the endorsement of Flávio Bolsonaro has instead led to a division, correcting previous overly optimistic sentiments [2] Group 2 - The Brazilian assets had performed well earlier in the year, supported by a general rise in emerging markets and expectations surrounding de Freitas's potential candidacy, despite current President Lula leading in early polls [2] - The discussion around who would succeed Bolsonaro intensified after he began serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn the results of the 2022 election, with many viewing de Freitas as the best chance for the right to defeat Lula [2] - Analysts expressed concerns that Flávio Bolsonaro may be less competitive against Lula and that his economic policy expectations are weaker, which could negatively impact Brazilian assets [3]