Sugar Prices Pressured by a Weak Brazilian Real

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed trends, influenced by currency fluctuations and production levels in major producing countries [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.08 (-0.54%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +0.40 (+0.09%) [1] - Sugar prices fell to 2-week lows due to increased sugar production in India, with a reported 43% year-on-year increase in production to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) [2] - Sugar prices rallied to 6-week highs last Friday amid concerns about tighter global supplies [4] Group 2: Production Insights - Brazil's sugar production forecast for 2025/26 was raised to 45 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices [3] - India's sugar mills are currently crushing cane at a higher rate, with 428 mills operational as of November 30, compared to 376 a year ago [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [6] Group 3: Policy and Export Dynamics - India's food ministry is considering raising the price of ethanol for gasoline blending, which could lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills may divert more cane to ethanol production [4] - India has allowed mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar for the 2025/26 season, which is lower than previous estimates [5]