Cantor Slashes Strategy Price Target By 59%, Remains 'Long-Term Bullish' on Bitcoin Giant

Core Viewpoint - Cantor Fitzgerald analysts have significantly reduced their price target for Strategy shares while maintaining an "Overweight" rating, reflecting a positive long-term outlook despite recent declines in share value and Bitcoin prices [1][2]. Group 1: Price Target and Valuation - The new 12-month price target for Strategy's stock is set at $229, which is approximately 59% lower than the previous estimate of $560 [2]. - Analysts have adjusted the valuation of Strategy's treasury operations, decreasing it from $364 per share to $74 per share [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Company Performance - Strategy's shares have dropped over 50% in the past six months, with the stock price falling to $178 recently [2][4]. - Bitcoin's price has decreased nearly 30% from a high of over $126,000 in early October, dropping below $90,000 [4]. Group 3: Financial Strategy and Risks - Analysts expect Strategy to raise $7.8 billion from capital markets over the next year, down from a previous expectation of $22.5 billion [3]. - The company has established a $1.44 billion cash reserve to cover dividend payments for nearly two years, and its convertible debt of $8.2 billion does not mature until 2028 [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There are concerns about a potential "crypto winter," but analysts believe that fears regarding Strategy are exaggerated [4]. - Despite the recent drop in Bitcoin prices, analysts do not foresee an end to Strategy's Bitcoin-buying activities, although the company has acknowledged the possibility of selling under certain conditions [6]. Group 5: MSCI Indices and Market Impact - Analysts noted that the potential removal of Strategy from MSCI's indices could lead to $2.8 billion in outflows, which is a concern that is somewhat warranted [7]. - Historically, Strategy has increased its Bitcoin holdings by issuing common stock, but this method has become less effective as its market cap has fallen below the value of its crypto holdings [7].