最简单，也最难的事情

Group 1 - The article discusses the dynamics of copper prices, emphasizing the balance between cost support and price stimulation, influenced by supply-demand conflicts and macroeconomic fluctuations [3][4] - It highlights China's unique position as a downstream destination and its efforts to expand upstream resource supply, providing an advantage in understanding commodity flows [3] - The article suggests that excessive macroeconomic research on most domestic commodities is unnecessary, as they are primarily influenced by supply and demand rather than macroeconomic factors [3] Group 2 - The author notes that while breaking previous highs in copper prices can lead to profits, it requires caution due to the potential for significant losses [4][6] - Historical price movements of copper are analyzed, indicating that prices have risen from $3,000 to $11,000, with the importance of recognizing price and fundamental discrepancies during critical periods [6][9] - The article warns that future copper price volatility will be significant, and simplistic assumptions about price trends should be avoided [11][16] Group 3 - Key macroeconomic indicators, such as the manufacturing PMI, are identified as critical for predicting copper price movements, with past instances showing a correlation between PMI declines and subsequent price drops [13] - The article discusses the potential dual outcomes of macroeconomic events, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and China's economic strategies, which could significantly impact copper prices [18][24] - The uncertainty surrounding Japan's interest rate policies is also highlighted, indicating that various macroeconomic scenarios could lead to vastly different outcomes for the copper market [24][25]