铜价狂飙，全球供应紧张引爆新一轮上涨行情

Group 1 - The global copper market is experiencing unprecedented price surges, with LME and SHFE copper futures prices hitting historical records, and the domestic copper price surpassing 93,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 6.12% [1] - Concerns over global copper supply availability are driving the price increase, with LME Asian warehouse cancellations reaching 50,700 tons, the highest in over a decade, tightening already low global inventories [1] - LME inventory has fallen below the critical threshold of 100,000 tons, while domestic social inventory is at historically low levels, leading to heightened market sensitivity to supply disruptions [1] Group 2 - Cross-market arbitrage trading is a significant factor in driving up copper prices, as funds are moving copper from LME to US warehouses, increasing supply pressure in non-US regions, particularly Asia [3] - Major institutions are raising their copper price forecasts, with Citigroup projecting prices to reach $15,000/ton in an optimistic scenario, while domestic brokerages like CITIC Securities expect LME copper prices to exceed $12,000/ton [3][4] - Analysts attribute the strong price increase to multiple factors, including insufficient mining capital expenditure leading to limited new projects, declining ore grades, and rising extraction costs, alongside robust demand from energy transition and emerging technologies [4]