从“怀疑”到“认可独特价值” 华尔街看好中国股市明年继续上涨

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is regaining global investor interest due to its strength in artificial intelligence and resilience amid geopolitical tensions, with expectations that this upward trend will continue into 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Major global fund management companies, including Amundi SA, BNP Paribas Asset Management, Fidelity International, and Man Group, anticipate continued growth in the Chinese stock market [1] - JPMorgan Chase & Co. has upgraded the rating of the Chinese market to "overweight," while Allspring Global Investments emphasizes that this asset class is becoming "indispensable" for foreign investors [1] - Investor sentiment has shifted from skepticism to recognition of the unique value that the Chinese market can provide through technological advancements [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Valuation - The MSCI China Index has surged approximately 30% this year, marking the largest outperformance against the S&P 500 since 2017, adding $2.4 trillion in market value [1] - Despite the recent surge, Chinese stocks remain relatively cheap compared to global peers, with the MSCI China Index's expected price-to-earnings ratio at 12 times, compared to 15 times for the MSCI Asia Index and 22 times for the S&P 500 [4] - Foreign long-only funds have purchased about $10 billion in stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong, reversing a previous outflow of $17 billion in 2024 [4] Group 3: Future Growth Drivers - The next phase of the market rebound is expected to be led by active fund managers as corporate earnings improve and re-inflation trends emerge [3] - Optimism regarding China's stock market is largely driven by expectations for its large technology giants, particularly in sectors like chips, biopharmaceuticals, and robotics [5] - There is potential for a rebound in underperforming sectors, especially consumer stocks, as the economy stabilizes [5] Group 4: Domestic Investment Dynamics - Local public funds are actively buying into the market, and there is increasing demand from insurance companies following regulatory encouragement earlier this year [6] - A significant portion of household savings, approximately $23 trillion, is seen as a potential driver for market growth, with expectations that domestic investor sentiment will return to the market [6]