【钢材周报】铁水下滑空间有限，钢价底部支撑偏强

Group 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook - The production of major steel products has decreased, with rebar production declining faster than hot-rolled steel, and iron output continuing to fall [6][71] - Total steel inventory is rapidly decreasing, with social inventory reducing faster than factory inventory; seasonal demand for steel is also declining, particularly for rebar [6][71] - Environmental inspections have intensified, leading to a further decline in iron output, although profits from blast furnaces are recovering, limiting the drive for active production cuts [6][71] Group 2: Supply and Demand Data - Rebar small sample production is 1.8931 million tons, down 167,700 tons; hot-rolled small sample production is 3.1431 million tons, down 47,000 tons [8][69] - Daily average iron output from 247 steel mills is 2.323 million tons, down 23,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 33.1%, down 0.4% [8][69] - Demand for rebar is 2.1698 million tons, down 109,600 tons; demand for hot-rolled steel is 3.1486 million tons, down 53,600 tons [8][69] Group 3: Macro Data and Economic Indicators - China's fixed asset investment growth rate has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% for the first ten months of 2025; real estate investment has dropped by 14.7% [34] - The official manufacturing PMI for November is 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing, while the U.S. manufacturing PMI is at 52.2, showing continued recovery [34][30] - The unemployment claims in the U.S. are at 191,000, lower than the expected 220,000, indicating some stability in the labor market [30][34] Group 4: Inventory Situation - Rebar inventory has decreased by 40,500 tons in factories and 236,200 tons in social inventory, totaling a reduction of 276,700 tons; hot-rolled inventory has increased by 19,000 tons in factories but decreased by 24,500 tons in social inventory [8][69] - Overall inventory for five major materials has decreased by 35,220 tons, with factory inventory down by 64,400 tons and social inventory down by 287,800 tons [8][69] Group 5: Price and Profit Review - The average price for rebar in Shanghai is 3,220 yuan, up 30 yuan; the average price for hot-rolled steel is 3,280 yuan, up 20 yuan [12][80] - The profit for electric arc furnaces in East China is -54.51 yuan per ton, while the profit for using valley electricity is 110 yuan per ton [90][69] - The cash profit for rebar in East China is around 1,200 yuan per ton, indicating a slight profitability for long-process steel mills [23][86]