明年财政政策前瞻：赤字率约4%，新增政府债务超12万亿

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" to stabilize the economy and promote growth [1][3][4] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to be no lower than 4%, with new government debt projected to exceed 12 trillion yuan, potentially reaching between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [1][2][6] - The focus of fiscal spending will shift towards enhancing public welfare and stimulating consumption, with an emphasis on "investing in people" [1][12][13] Group 2 - The fiscal policy will maintain an expansionary stance to support economic growth, particularly in light of ongoing challenges in the real estate market and consumer spending [5][6][10] - The total fiscal expenditure is anticipated to exceed 30 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of around 4.5% to match nominal GDP growth [10][11] - There will be a significant increase in the issuance of special bonds and local government bonds to support infrastructure and public services [9][12][14] Group 3 - The government aims to enhance the sustainability of fiscal policies while balancing short-term stimulus with long-term stability [4][7] - Recommendations include increasing fiscal support for consumption, particularly in sectors like healthcare, education, and social security [12][13] - The reform of the fiscal and tax system will focus on increasing local government financial autonomy and improving the efficiency of fiscal spending [14]