李扬：“脱媒”已经成为发展资本市场的有效条件

Core Viewpoint - The downward trend in interest rates may become a norm for China's financial operations in the near future, and addressing the challenges posed by low interest rates will be a primary task for the financial industry [1] Group 1: Reasons for Interest Rate Decline - The first reason is related to the real economy, where changes in global population structure and slowing technological progress have led to a decline in potential growth rates, resulting in total global savings exceeding total investments, which determines the downward trend of natural interest rates [3][7] - The second reason pertains to the financial system, where large-scale financialization of the real economy has altered the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to the real economy, indicating a shift from traditional economic cycles to financial cycles [3][7] - The third reason involves changes in the paradigm of monetary policy, where central banks are now more decisive in responding to crises, as seen after the subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S. [3][7] Group 2: Impacts of Interest Rate Decline - The decline in interest rates reduces financial costs for the real economy, providing a positive stimulus for its development, while in the financial sector, lower interest rates lead to a narrowing of interest margins [8] - Additionally, the decline in interest rates may cause funds to flow out of commercial banks' balance sheets, a phenomenon known as "disintermediation," where funds move away from financial intermediaries to the market and non-bank financial institutions [8] - The impact on monetary policy will lead to significant changes in financial structure, with social financing in China increasing from 12.768 trillion yuan in 2015 to 43.772 trillion yuan by October 2025, a 2.42-fold increase over ten years [9] Group 3: Financial Structure Changes - The scale of indirect financing, which includes various types of loans, has increased from 11.055 trillion yuan to 28.617 trillion yuan over the same period, a 1.58-fold increase [9] - The proportion of indirect financing in total social financing has decreased from 86% to 65.3%, a reduction of 21 percentage points over ten years, indicating progress towards the goal of reducing the proportion of indirect financing and increasing direct financing [9][10] - Disintermediation has become a favorable condition for the development of capital markets, although it does not guarantee that capital markets will develop well, as other conditions are also necessary [10]