How Good Has RH Stock Actually Been?

Core Viewpoint - The luxury home goods retailer RH has faced significant revenue declines due to a sluggish housing market, resulting in a stock price drop of over 50% in the last five years, contrasting with the S&P 500's 87% increase [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - RH's revenue peaked at $1 billion in Q3 2021 but fell to $727 million by fiscal Q1 2024, although a modest recovery to $899 million was noted in the most recent quarter [4]. - The stock is down 58% year to date, influenced by uncertainties around tariffs and competition, leading to reduced profit visibility [5]. - The operating profit margin has decreased from over 20% before the downturn to just 12% on a trailing-12-month basis [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Opportunities - With the Federal Reserve expected to lower interest rates, it may be an opportune time to invest in stocks like RH that could benefit from a housing market recovery [2]. - RH is expanding internationally, particularly in Europe, where demand in England has surged by 76% in the recent quarter, indicating potential for future growth [7]. - The company is managing selling prices to counteract higher tariff costs, which is expected to stabilize margins, with analysts predicting a return to nearly 20% operating margin by fiscal 2030 [8]. Group 3: Investment Potential - The stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8, suggesting potential for significant returns over the next five years, especially with projected 46% compound annual growth in adjusted earnings per share [8]. - Despite recent underperformance, RH's brand and long-term growth potential remain intact, presenting a buying opportunity for long-term investors [6].