管涛：今年我国国际收支口径跨境直接投资逆势向好

Core Viewpoint - In the context of external extreme tariff pressures, China's net outflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) decreased year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, indicating a potential stabilization in cross-border capital flows despite ongoing global economic challenges [1][14]. Group 1: Trends in Foreign Direct Investment - Historically, China has been a major recipient of foreign investment, but recent years have seen significant fluctuations in FDI due to external pressures and market concerns about "de-Chinaization" and supply chain restructuring [1][2]. - From 2021 to 2024, China's cross-border direct investment shifted from a surplus to a deficit, with a total increase in deficit of $319 billion, primarily due to a sharp decline in foreign direct investment inflows [6][11]. - In 2021, China's direct investment surplus reached a record high of $165.3 billion, but this trend reversed in 2022, leading to significant deficits in subsequent years [4][6]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Investment Flows - The decline in foreign direct investment inflows is attributed to a drastic reduction in equity investments and a reversal in inter-company debt flows, reflecting the impact of interest rate differentials and the yuan's role in cross-border financing [7][9]. - Specifically, equity investment inflows dropped from $300.6 billion to $72.8 billion from 2021 to 2024, contributing 70% to the total decline in foreign direct investment inflows [10][11]. - In contrast, the net outflow of equity investments decreased from $152.4 billion to $130 billion, indicating a stabilization in outward investment [13][23]. Group 3: Recent Developments and Government Response - In the first three quarters of this year, China's cross-border direct investment deficit was $78 billion, a 50.8% decrease year-on-year, largely due to an increase in foreign direct investment inflows and a reduction in outflows [16][19]. - The Chinese government has implemented measures to mitigate external shocks, including deepening reforms, expanding high-level opening-up, and stabilizing key economic indicators [14][16]. - The net inflow of foreign direct investment turned positive in the first three quarters, with a significant increase in inter-company debt flows and equity investments, suggesting a potential recovery in foreign investment sentiment [21][22].