Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-07 13:05Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Moutai's wholesale prices has temporarily suppressed the performance of the sector, but potential policy-driven consumption catalysts in December are noteworthy. Current valuations in the food and beverage sector are at relatively low historical levels, indicating clear bottom logic for quality assets like liquor. The focus on three main lines in the consumer goods sector presents structural opportunities, with recommendations to continue investing in liquor and consumer goods with specific logic. It is expected that the consumer goods sector will outperform liquor, with liquor demand stabilizing as the market awaits the Spring Festival [1][14]. Group 1: Market Performance - This week, the A-share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3902.81 points, a weekly change of 0.37%. The food and beverage sector experienced a weekly decline of 1.90%, underperforming the market by 2.27 percentage points, ranking 30th among Shenwan's primary industry classifications [2][15]. - Among the various sub-sectors of food and beverage, the performance from highest to lowest was as follows: pre-processed foods (+1.51%), beer (+1.20%), soft drinks (+0.43%), meat products (-0.11%), health products (-0.17%), seasoning and fermented products (-0.32%), snacks (-0.73%), dairy products (-1.74%), liquor (-2.59%), and other alcoholic beverages (-3.06%) [2][15]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Clear signals of industry bottoming are evident, presenting opportunities for undervalued investments. Liquor demand is in a bottoming phase, with sales still under pressure but gradually recovering compared to Q3. Liquor companies are expected to continue the trend of performance clearing, actively alleviating market burdens. The liquor sector's valuation is at historical lows, providing strong bottom configuration value, while potential consumption policy catalysts are also noteworthy [3][16]. - For consumer goods, focus on three structural opportunities: 1) Improvement in the restaurant supply chain and supermarket customization, with a reduction in price wars and lighter channel inventory burdens as the traditional peak season approaches. 2) The health and functional product segment is experiencing high growth, with leading oat brands benefiting from the "oat+" health trend. 3) The price cycle is nearing a turning point, with expected improvements in upstream profitability as raw milk prices stabilize [3][16]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the liquor sector, the recent global distributor conference for Fenjiu emphasized the certainty of future growth, with expectations for the domestic economy to stabilize and recover, supported by policy and consumption revival. This is anticipated to lead to a dual leap in cultural value and market scale for liquor as a cyclical industry [4][17]. - The average milk price in major production areas was 3.02 yuan/kg in the last week of November, down 0.1 yuan/kg, indicating a continued bottoming of raw milk prices. The first batch of deep-processed products from Mengniu has passed testing and is expected to contribute to performance improvements in the dairy sector as production capacity increases [20].