莲华资产洪灏：2026年美股将会先涨后跌，美联储即将重启扩表推高风险资产

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is expected to rise initially and then decline, primarily due to the ongoing liquidity cycle [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Conditions - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken significantly as a necessary measure to attract capital back to the U.S. and invest in American manufacturing, given the high labor and operational costs [3][6]. - The upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chairmanship next year is anticipated to impact monetary policy, with current short-term funding markets being very tight, leading to short-term interest rates exceeding the Fed's benchmark rate [3][6]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates soon, as it has no other viable options, and this decision is seen as inevitable [3][6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has abandoned its plan to reduce its balance sheet, which currently stands at approximately $6 trillion, due to issues arising in the repurchase market [3][6]. - A new round of balance sheet expansion by the Federal Reserve is expected, potentially reaching new heights, which will likely result in an increase in risk asset prices [3][6]. - The current market conditions suggest that shorting risk assets may not be cost-effective, as there is a belief that risk assets will experience both upward and downward movements [3][6].