国泰海通：中国股市将进入跨年攻势 迈上新高

Group 1 - The Chinese stock market is expected to enter a cross-year offensive after a prolonged period of sideways movement, with a favorable window from December to February for policy, liquidity, and fundamentals to resonate positively, leading to a potential rise in indices [3][4][44] - Recent market stabilization and rebound, particularly with a rise in brokerage and insurance stocks, have activated market sentiment, indicating a shift towards a more optimistic outlook [4][45] - Anticipated macroeconomic policies are expected to become more proactive, with expectations of expanded fiscal deficits and supportive measures for economic development as the 2026 economic work conference approaches [4][45] Group 2 - The demand for asset management in China is projected to surge as traditional fixed asset investments decline and high-yield, risk-free financial assets diminish, marking 2026 as a pivotal year for transitioning from fixed income to fixed income plus [5][46] - The upcoming peak year for three-year time deposits in 2026, with yields significantly lower than in 2023, indicates a strong need for capital reallocation and diversification [5][46] - The expected influx of insurance capital into the market, driven by regulatory changes, could reach trillions, further opening up investment opportunities [5][46] Group 3 - The capital market is entering a new historical phase, acting as a crucial link between social and economic development, with a shift towards knowledge-intensive and capital-intensive industries [6][47] - The market capitalization structure reflects this change, with manufacturing, TMT, and financial sectors leading, while real estate's influence diminishes [6][47] - The reduction of uncertainties in economic development and the anticipated 10.6% growth in non-financial A-share earnings in 2026 highlight the market's potential for growth [6][47] Group 4 - The stock market is expected to see a resonance of policy, liquidity, and fundamentals from December to February, with a focus on technology, finance, and consumer sectors [7][48] - Key recommendations include technology growth driven by advancements in AI and computing infrastructure, as well as opportunities in the financial sector due to capital market reforms [7][48] - Consumer stocks are also highlighted for their potential recovery, particularly in food and beverage, agriculture, and tourism sectors, as macroeconomic risks decrease [7][48]