沿海运价高位回调 内河运费基本稳定

Group 1: Inland Transportation - The overall price of inland grain shipping remains stable, with slight weakness in some routes; however, the capacity of river vessels continues to be tight, leading to an increase in grain shipping prices [1] - The sentiment of grain holders is gradually easing, with traders showing a stronger willingness to sell, which has supplemented the market's wheat circulation; the listing of autumn grain is accelerating, providing stable sources of supply [1] - Factors such as upstream drought and restricted passage through ship locks have exacerbated the short-term supply-demand tension, pushing prices up, with prices for shipping to Chongqing increasing by approximately 10 yuan/ton this week [1] Group 2: Coastal Transportation - The coastal grain transportation market is experiencing a high-level correction, with slight declines in freight rates on major routes from the Suwan region to southern coastal areas; for instance, the freight rate from Anning Port to Guangdong for 5000-ton vessels is around 78-83 yuan/ton, down about 2 yuan/ton from last week [3] - The correction is driven by improved port efficiency in northern ports, as previously constrained shipping capacity is gradually being released; additionally, the flow of southern wheat has not significantly increased, leading to cautious purchasing by downstream flour enterprises [3] - Despite current freight rates being relatively high compared to previous years, the market shows signs of fatigue due to a lack of demand growth and marginal improvements in supply capacity [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The increase in wheat circulation and the ongoing peak season for autumn grain is expected to keep inland shipping rates stable; however, structural bottlenecks in shipping capacity due to drought and congestion in the Yangtze River are likely to support river shipping rates in the short term [2] - As the pressure on northern ports eases, available shipping capacity is expected to return to southern routes, leading to a more relaxed supply-demand balance; if demand from the south remains weak, there is potential for further declines in freight rates [4]