原油年报：供应过剩背景下，油市有望筑底回暖

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is expected to stabilize and recover in 2025, despite facing significant supply surplus due to OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical tensions, particularly influenced by the re-election of Donald Trump as the U.S. President [6][7][9]. Supply Side - Global oil supply is under pressure from weak demand and accelerated production increases by OPEC+, leading to a significant surplus. In 2025, the average global oil surplus is projected at 1.795 million barrels per day, with a peak surplus of 4.43 million barrels per day recorded in October [13]. - OPEC+ has significantly increased production, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8422 million barrels per day, while non-OPEC countries have also contributed to the surplus with an increase of 0.8353 million barrels per day [13]. - The supply dynamics are further complicated by geopolitical factors, including sanctions and conflicts, which have led to fluctuations in monthly price differentials [9][10]. Refining Profits - After three years of decline, global refining profits are rebounding in 2025, driven by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and sanctions against Russia, which have disrupted refined product supplies [10][11]. - The sanctions on Russian oil companies have led to a significant drop in Russian refined product exports, creating supply gaps in Europe and Asia, thus pushing up global diesel prices [11]. Demand Side - China's oil demand remains stable but shows signs of weakness, with refinery processing rates fluctuating seasonally. The total crude oil processed by Chinese refineries from January to November 2025 is approximately 680 million tons, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.07% [50][52]. - The demand for gasoline and diesel is declining due to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles and LNG trucks, while aviation fuel demand is increasing due to the recovery of domestic air travel [54][55]. Future Outlook - The oil market is expected to remain in a state of surplus into 2026, with projections of surplus levels ranging from 2 to 2.8 million barrels per day [15][16]. - Non-OPEC countries, particularly Guyana, Brazil, and Argentina, are anticipated to contribute significantly to future production increases, with Guyana's production expected to reach 1.06 million barrels per day by 2026 [30][32][34].