联合国贸发会议报告显示：全球经济处于脆弱韧性状态

Core Viewpoint - The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report indicates that the global economy is in a state of "fragile resilience" for 2024-2025, characterized by superficial stability but underlying weaknesses and accumulating risks, with a projected slowdown in global economic growth to 2.6% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024 [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Global economic growth is transitioning from weak to a lower decline trajectory due to weak global demand, sluggish private investment, and a low manufacturing cycle [1] - Domestic spending is low in many economies, with household purchasing power under pressure, particularly due to high interest rates suppressing economic activity and domestic demand [1] - Weak fixed investment and low private sector investment are leading to a lack of expansion willingness among businesses, further eroding long-term growth potential [1] Group 2: Financial and Trade Uncertainties - The global economic outlook is leaning downward, with multiple uncertainties affecting recovery, including high interest rates increasing financing costs for businesses and governments [2] - Trade policy uncertainties remain at historically high levels, impacting corporate investment and leading to a slowdown in global trade, which further drags down manufacturing investment and employment growth [2] Group 3: Systemic Risks and Recommendations - Geopolitical tensions, supply chain restructuring, and climate risks are expected to exacerbate systemic risks by 2025, particularly affecting developing economies [3] - Developing countries face significant debt risks, with 35 out of 68 low-income countries either in or at high risk of debt distress, which could lead to long-term output declines and increased borrowing costs [3] - The report suggests major policy shifts are necessary to return to a balanced and sustainable global growth path, including stabilizing macroeconomic conditions and reforming the global financial architecture [4]