澳币AUDUSD杀出反攻势：内需爆炸＋通胀四连升，市场押注澳储行重启加息

Group 1 - Australia's economy shows significant internal heat and external cooling, leading to a notable increase in market expectations for interest rate hikes. Key economic data indicates a surprising surge in domestic demand, with household spending rising by 1.3% in October, the largest increase in nearly two years, while inflation accelerated to 3.8% for the fourth consecutive month, raising concerns about economic overheating [1][29] - The private sector is experiencing structural but uneven improvements, with the services sector continuing to lead recovery as the PMI rose to 52.8 in November, remaining in the expansion zone for 22 consecutive months. However, manufacturing activity remains in contraction territory, indicating a fragile recovery foundation [2][29] - The real estate market is showing regional disparities, with price increases primarily driven by smaller capital cities like Perth, while major markets like Sydney and Melbourne are slowing down. Building permits fell sharply by 6.41% in October, suggesting potential future housing supply constraints [2][29] Group 2 - In the U.S., consumer confidence slightly rebounded in early December, with the index rising from 51.0 in November to 53.3, although overall sentiment remains low due to high price pressures [3][30] - Consumer spending in the U.S. showed weak growth in September, increasing only by 0.3%, primarily driven by rising prices, with inflation pressures persisting as the PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year, the highest growth since April 2024 [4][31] - The economic landscape in the U.S. is characterized by a dual feature of slowing demand and persistent inflation, with increasing internal inequality. The market is now expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in upcoming meetings, with the likelihood approaching 90% [5][32] Group 3 - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain the cash rate at 3.60% during the December meeting, with this level likely to persist until 2026. This marks a significant shift in market sentiment, as previous expectations included at least one rate cut by 2025 [9][34] - Despite a high-interest environment, the housing loan market in Australia remains robust, with total housing loans reaching AUD 2.39 trillion in October, reflecting economic resilience but potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures [10][35] - The Australian stock market showed a slight increase, with the benchmark index rising by 0.19%, as investors await key monetary policy decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve [37][39]