智通财经网·2025-12-07 23:43Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the increasing investment value of strategic mineral resources due to heightened global macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, emphasizing the clear long-term allocation logic for copper, aluminum, and gold based on current supply-demand dynamics, policy directions, and industry trends [1] Group 1: Copper - Supply-side constraints are intensifying, with global copper supply disruptions occurring frequently, such as Codelco's significant price increase for long-term contracts and accidents at major mines tightening supply [2] - Structural growth in demand is driven by the green economy and AI infrastructure, with increasing copper demand from solar, wind, and electric vehicle sectors, supported by traditional demand resilience from aging infrastructure [2] - Positive macro and policy factors include rising probabilities of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a weaker dollar alleviating pressure on copper prices, and domestic policies promoting industry upgrades and limiting new capacity [2] Group 2: Aluminum - Supply constraints are reinforced by a domestic production cap of 45 million tons per year and risks from overseas production, such as potential reductions in French and Icelandic aluminum plants due to high energy costs [2] - Demand is driven by explosive growth in the new energy sector, with increased aluminum usage in electric vehicles and photovoltaic applications, alongside resilient traditional demand from grid investments [2] - Policy and liquidity factors are favorable, with government plans targeting a 30% clean energy usage by 2027 and an increase in recycled aluminum production, alongside enhanced financial attributes for aluminum prices due to expected interest rate cuts [2] Group 3: Gold - The financial attributes of gold are strengthening, with over 80% probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a decline in the dollar index, enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge against risks and inflation [3] - Positive policy and funding conditions include new tax policies favoring investment-grade gold products and ongoing purchases by the central bank, which has increased its gold reserves to 7.409 million ounces [3] - The demand for gold is bolstered by its scarcity and the ongoing geopolitical tensions, which elevate risk-averse sentiments among investors [3]