数十年来鲜见！美联储降息美债收益率却攀升 华尔街激辩背后原因

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market's unusual reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has sparked intense debate, with interpretations ranging from optimism about economic resilience to concerns over rising national debt and inflation [1][4][12]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Since the Federal Reserve began cutting rates in September 2024, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen by nearly half a percentage point to 4.1%, while the 30-year yield has increased by over 0.8 percentage points [4][6]. - Historically, long-term bond yields typically decrease when the Fed lowers short-term rates, but this time, the opposite has occurred, marking a significant deviation from past trends [6][12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that the current situation reflects a return to pre-financial crisis normalcy, with higher long-term yields indicating a structural inability to lower rates further [13]. - Concerns are growing that continued rate cuts by the Fed, amidst persistent inflation above the 2% target, could lead to higher mortgage rates and borrowing costs [12][13]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The term premium, which represents the extra compensation investors demand for holding long-term bonds, has increased by nearly a full percentage point since the onset of the rate-cutting cycle, indicating heightened risk perceptions [8][11]. - Market participants are worried about the potential for political pressure on the Fed to maintain aggressive rate cuts, which could undermine its credibility and lead to further inflationary pressures [4][12].