减产措施逐步落实供需预期改善 己内酰胺价格触底反弹

Core Viewpoint - The caprolactam market has begun to rebound after hitting a five-year low of 8050 yuan per ton in early November, with prices rising to 9000 yuan by late November due to self-imposed production cuts by companies aimed at stabilizing prices [1][5]. Industry Overview - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's caprolactam industry has maintained a rapid growth rate, contributing to the swift development of nylon 6 and downstream industries [2]. - By 2024, caprolactam production capacity is expected to reach 6.94 million tons, with an output of 6.54 million tons, while the total annual production is projected to exceed 8 million tons by 2025 [2]. Price Dynamics - The average production profit for the caprolactam industry from January to October was -1557 yuan, with some companies experiencing losses exceeding 600 yuan per ton in October [3]. - The price of caprolactam fell to a five-year low of 8050 yuan due to various factors, including weak demand from the textile sector and external pressures such as U.S.-China trade tensions [2][4]. Production Adjustments - Companies have voluntarily reduced production by 20% to stabilize prices, with several firms announcing price increases of 100 yuan per ton [5][6]. - As of November 20, the overall operating rate in the industry dropped to around 80%, with inventory levels decreasing to approximately 32,500 tons [6]. Future Outlook - The supply-side dynamics are expected to remain tight, with ongoing production cuts likely to support price increases in the near term [7]. - The downstream nylon 6 market is anticipated to gradually follow suit in price increases, although new capacity from Guangxi Hengyi may limit the speed of these increases [8].