华泰证券：春季躁动提前的能见度上升

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to rebound with reduced trading volume, supported by improved liquidity conditions and expectations of policy easing ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference [1][16]. Group 1: Funding Observation - Recent improvements in the funding environment include a slight recovery in margin trading balances and a decrease in the scale of net outflows from foreign capital [2][17]. - New equity funds have seen a slight decrease in shares, but the estimated positions of ordinary stock and mixed equity funds have increased [2][19]. - The number of newly issued ETFs has significantly increased, with 22 currently being issued, 10 awaiting issuance, and 11 pending approval [2][19]. Group 2: Economic Tracking - The overall industry prosperity index continued to decline in November, influenced by holiday effects on October production data [3][19]. - Key sectors showing improvement include TMT, upstream resources, and public industries, with notable recovery in AI applications, commodity prices, and consumer goods [3][19]. - Specific areas of focus include the AI chain, price increase chain, capital goods, consumer goods, and infrastructure chains [3][19]. Group 3: Policy Outlook - Expectations for policy changes are rising ahead of the December Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, with anticipated focuses on proactive macro policies and expanding domestic demand [4][19]. - Historical data suggests a higher probability of market increases in the week leading up to the Central Economic Work Conference, particularly in sectors like consumer services and home appliances [4][19]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The market is currently in a phase of recovery, with potential for a "spring surge" starting in mid-December [5][20]. - A balanced allocation between growth and cyclical sectors is recommended, with a focus on high-value consumption and financial sectors as long-term investment choices [5][20]. - Key sectors to watch include aviation equipment, AI chains, and power equipment for growth, while non-ferrous metals and certain chemicals are highlighted for cyclical investments [5][20].