钢材期货行情展望：铁水下降抑制铁矿价格 关注多螺空矿套利

Price and Basis - The prices for rebar and hot-rolled coil have strengthened this week, with January and May contracts for rebar at 3137 CNY and 3157 CNY, and for hot-rolled coil at 3312 CNY and 3320 CNY respectively [1] - The price difference between rebar and hot-rolled coil has narrowed, with a current spot price difference of 170 CNY per ton, and January and May contract differences at 175 CNY and 163 CNY per ton respectively [1] - The basis for rebar has strengthened by approximately 20 CNY this week, with January and May contracts at -7 CNY/ton and -27 CNY/ton respectively; hot-rolled coil basis has fluctuated, with January at -2 CNY and May at -10 CNY [1] Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal prices have weakened recently, and iron ore prices are showing signs of peaking and declining due to a continuous decrease in molten iron production [1] - Steel mills have reduced production, leading to a slight recovery in profits, but the expected profit recovery space remains limited due to the off-season [1] - Current profit rankings from high to low are cold-rolled > steel billet > hot-rolled > rebar [1] Supply - From January to November, iron element production increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with a projected annual increase of 3.7% [2] - Molten iron production continues to decline, with a decrease of 26,700 tons to 829,000 tons, and rebar production is below demand [2] - Rebar production decreased by 170,000 tons to 1,890,000 tons, while hot-rolled coil production decreased by 50,000 tons to 3,140,000 tons, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation for hot-rolled coil [2] Demand - Domestic demand remains weak, while exports are supported by low prices; November demand increased to 8,770,000 tons, but is still lower than last year [2] - December demand is expected to weaken seasonally, with a projected decrease of 240,000 tons to 8,640,000 tons [2] - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil demand have decreased, with rebar down by 110,000 tons to 2,170,000 tons and hot-rolled coil down by 54,000 tons to 3,150,000 tons [2] Inventory - This week saw a reduction in inventory, with total inventory for five major materials down by 350,000 tons to 13,660,000 tons [2] - Rebar inventory decreased by 280,000 tons to 5,040,000 tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory saw a minor decrease of 5,000 tons to 400,000 tons [2] - The reduction in hot-rolled coil production is not significant, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation with slow inventory depletion [2] Market Outlook - The basis for rebar has strengthened while that for hot-rolled coil has weakened, with a continued convergence in price differences [3] - Overall demand has declined, and steel mills are continuing to reduce production; absolute price increases are insufficient to drive the market, but production cuts provide some support [3] - Price fluctuations are expected to remain within the ranges of 3000-3200 CNY for rebar and 3200-3350 CNY for hot-rolled coil, with ongoing inventory depletion reflected in stronger basis and rising profits [3] Strategy - The strategy remains focused on the convergence of price differences between rebar and hot-rolled coil, with recommendations for multi-rebar and short iron ore arbitrage [4][5]