美元指数震荡迷局 美联储决议将定生死？

Group 1 - The core focus is on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with the market showing cautious sentiment reflected in the recent fluctuations of the US dollar index [1] - The US dollar index closed at 98.98 on December 5, experiencing a slight decline of 0.07% on that day and a cumulative drop of 0.5% over the past week, marking the second consecutive week of decline [1] - There is significant divergence in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, with a prevailing outlook favoring continued easing; the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut during the December 9-10 meeting is at 87.2% according to the CME FedWatch tool [1] Group 2 - Institutions generally believe the US dollar is overvalued, with Goldman Sachs estimating it to be overvalued by approximately 20%, while Huatai Securities estimates a 15-20% overvaluation [2] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that the actual effective exchange rate of the US dollar is overvalued by 10%, influenced by factors such as tariff policies and capital flow reversals [2] - The upcoming global central bank policy announcements are expected to clarify the divergence in monetary policies, with the Bank of Japan's anticipated interest rate hike potentially exerting further pressure on the US dollar [2]