美国经济金融走势背离 “双周期”演绎新特征

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "dual cycles" in the economy and finance indicates that economic cycles and financial cycles operate independently, leading to a divergence that poses higher demands for macroeconomic policy coordination [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Evolution and Definition of Dual Cycles - The debt economy era began in the 1990s, where economic growth increasingly relies on debt expansion, leading to a credit-driven economic model [2][3]. - The financial policies in Western economies tend to accumulate excessive money supply, resulting in a disconnect between monetary policy and real economic activity [2][3]. Divergence of U.S. Economy and Finance - Post-pandemic, the U.S. economy shows a gradual decline, with real GDP growth rates projected at 2.5%, 2.9%, and 2.8% from 2022 to 2024, while nominal GDP growth rates are expected to decline from 9.8% to 5.3% in the same period [4][5]. - Despite a decline in economic growth, U.S. consumer spending remains strong, with personal consumption expenditures projected to grow by 9.7%, 6.5%, and 5.6% from 2022 to 2024 [5][6]. Strong Financial Performance - U.S. financial markets have shown robust performance, with domestic listed company market capitalization expected to grow by -17.0%, 21.5%, and 27.0% from 2022 to 2024, indicating a divergence from economic growth trends [7][8]. - The U.S. capital market has adopted internationalization strategies to counteract the trend of "de-equitization," maintaining a stable number of listed companies despite a decline in domestic listings [8]. Implications of Economic and Financial Separation - The divergence between economic and financial cycles has become evident, particularly during the periods of 2019-2020 and 2023-2024, highlighting the independent evolution of these cycles [15][16]. - The current economic and financial landscape suggests that the U.S. maintains a "strong financial" stance to support a weaker economy, which may not be sustainable in the long term [16][17]. International Economic Competition - The importance of capital flows in the international financial landscape is expected to rise, with the "dual cycles" phenomenon becoming more pronounced in open economies [18]. - The shift in focus from trade and currency to capital will redefine international economic competition, necessitating careful consideration of capital project openness for countries aspiring to become financial powers [18].