美欧经济差异短期上行

Group 1 - The core driver for the euro's strength against the dollar is the divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside differences in economic fundamentals [1][2] - The market anticipates a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve during its upcoming meeting, with the likelihood reaching 87% according to CME FedWatch [1] - The European Central Bank signals a preference to maintain current interest rates, with President Lagarde stating that rates are at an appropriate level and inflation risks are being managed [2] Group 2 - Economic growth forecasts indicate a slowdown in the U.S. economy, with growth expected to decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025, and further to 1.7% in 2026, influenced by tariffs and consumer spending [2] - In contrast, the eurozone's growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward to 1.3% and 1% respectively, indicating relative economic resilience [2] - The technical analysis shows a solid short-term upward trend for the euro against the dollar, with key resistance at 1.1650 and support at 1.1630 [3]