日本三季度GDP萎缩幅度下修至2.3%，为高市早苗大规模刺激计划提供依据

Economic Overview - Japan's economy contracted in the third quarter, with GDP declining at an annualized rate of 2.3%, which is worse than the initially reported 1.8% drop, marking the first contraction in six quarters [1] - The contraction is attributed to weaker corporate spending and housing investment, indicating a lack of momentum in the economy [1] Government Stimulus Plan - Prime Minister Kishida's stimulus plan, the largest since the pandemic, includes an additional expenditure of 17.7 trillion yen (approximately 114 billion USD) aimed at alleviating inflationary pressures on households [1] - The plan is expected to boost national GDP by about 1.4 percentage points annually over three years if implemented during the specified period [2] Monetary Policy Implications - The economic slowdown may provide justification for increased fiscal stimulus, but it is unlikely to deter the Bank of Japan from its gradual interest rate hike trajectory [2] - The likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan is approximately 90%, following indications from Governor Ueda that borrowing costs will soon rise [2] Corporate Investment Trends - Corporate investment fell by 0.2% in the last quarter, contrary to initial estimates of a 1% increase, marking the first decline in six quarters due to uncertainties related to U.S. tariffs [2][3] - Net exports remain weak, influenced by U.S. tariffs, while domestic private consumption showed minimal growth of 0.2% [3] Wage and Inflation Dynamics - Real wages in Japan fell by 0.7% year-on-year in October, marking the tenth consecutive month of decline, despite nominal wages increasing by 2.6% [3] - Japan's main inflation indicators have remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three and a half years, the longest duration since the early 1990s [3] Future Economic Outlook - Risks such as a weakening yen, currently around 155 yen to the dollar, could exacerbate inflation and suppress private consumption [3] - Economic recovery is expected to continue, albeit at a slow pace, with limited growth drivers [4]