智通财经网·2025-12-08 02:55Group 1: Core Insights - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that during a rate-cutting cycle, physical assets with tight supply and demand can exhibit significant price elasticity, particularly for industrial metals like copper and aluminum, which are experiencing a super cycle [1] - Last week, copper and aluminum prices saw notable increases, with LME copper closing at a record high of $11,655 per ton, reflecting strong demand expectations [1] - There is a growing divergence among investors regarding the sustainability of rising prices for copper and aluminum, especially as the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 5.35% due to the surge in copper prices [1] Group 2: Copper Sector - A significant withdrawal of 56,900 tons from LME copper inventories, the largest single-day order in 13 years, has heightened expectations of tight copper supply, driving prices upward [2] - Chile's national copper company has raised COMEX-LME copper premium quotes, reflecting concerns over potential U.S. tariff policies and supply tightness [2] - The copper market is expected to see continued support for price increases due to rising demand in traditional and emerging sectors, while self-regulatory measures in the copper industry may stabilize smelting fees [2] Group 3: Aluminum Sector - Aluminum is increasingly in demand due to its properties as an ideal material for energy storage systems, with projections indicating a need for 2310 tons of aluminum per 1 GWh of installed capacity [3] - The anticipated production scale of energy storage battery compartments in China is expected to reach 350 GWh by 2025, driving an additional demand for aluminum of 80,000 tons [3] - The current high copper-aluminum price ratio suggests that demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper will continue to grow, supporting aluminum price increases [3] Group 4: Gold Sector - The market anticipates a higher probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to rising inflation expectations, thereby supporting gold prices [4] - The forecast for gold prices suggests a potential breakthrough of $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by ongoing industrial metal price increases [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - For the copper sector, it is recommended to focus on Zijin Mining (601899.SH) for its substantial resource reserves and expected production growth, along with other companies like Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) and Jincheng Mining (603979.SH) [5] - In the aluminum sector, Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) and Huafeng Aluminum (601702.SH) are highlighted for their potential to achieve volume and price increases in 2026 [5] - For the gold sector, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH) is recommended due to its improving production and performance outlook [5]