重视煤价四段轮推断，稳煤价依旧

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, but the overall upward trend is expected to continue due to tightening supply and increasing demand, particularly in the context of seasonal heating needs and industrial production ramping up towards year-end [2][3]. Group 1: Coal Price Trends - As of December 5, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 785 RMB/ton, down 31 RMB/ton week-on-week, while the Guangzhou port price is 825 RMB/ton [1][2]. - The main coking coal price at Jingtang port is 1630 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB/ton in early July [2]. - Coking coal futures have increased significantly from 719 RMB in early June to 1140 RMB currently, representing a cumulative increase of 58.6% [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in thermal coal prices is attributed to a combination of supply tightening due to regulatory actions and increased demand driven by seasonal factors [2][3]. - Supply constraints are a result of ongoing crackdowns on overproduction and safety inspections, limiting capacity release [2]. - Demand is rising as the energy sector enters a peak demand season, with early heating needs due to cold weather and increased industrial activity [2]. Group 3: Investment Logic - The price of thermal coal is expected to recover through a four-step process involving the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a balanced profit margin for coal and power companies [3]. - The ideal target price for coal is projected to be between 800-860 RMB/ton, with the breakeven point for power plants at 860 RMB [3]. - Coking coal prices are influenced more by market dynamics, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is positioned for a rebound due to historical low prices and improving supply-demand fundamentals [4]. - Companies are expected to maintain high dividend payouts, with several listed coal companies announcing interim dividend plans [4]. - Key investment lines include cyclical logic with companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal, dividend-focused firms like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, and growth-oriented companies like Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [4].