全球经济处于脆弱韧性状态

Core Insights - The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report indicates that the global economy is in a state of "fragile resilience" for 2024-2025, characterized by superficial stability but underlying weaknesses and accumulating risks [1] - Global economic growth is projected to slow to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024 [1] Demand-Side Weakness - Global demand is weak, with sluggish domestic spending and consumer purchasing power under pressure, particularly due to high interest rates that suppress economic activity and domestic demand [1] - The inability of demand to spontaneously recover is identified as a primary reason for the lack of internal momentum in growth [1] Investment Weakness - There is a notable lack of investment momentum, particularly in private investment and fixed capital formation, leading to delayed capital expenditures by businesses due to high financing costs and uncertain profit outlooks [1] - The absence of investment sources to drive the next growth cycle is eroding long-term growth potential [1] Economic Outlook and Uncertainties - The global economic outlook is skewed towards a downward trend, with multiple uncertainties affecting recovery, including sustained high interest rates that increase financing costs for businesses and governments [2] - Trade policy uncertainties remain at historically high levels, impacting corporate investment and contributing to a slowdown in global trade [2] Systemic Risks and Climate Impact - Geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and regional supply chain restructuring are expected to exacerbate systemic risks by 2025 [3] - Climate-related extreme events are increasing in developing countries, leading to disruptions in food prices and supply chains, which in turn strain public investment [3] Debt Risks - Developing countries face significant debt risks, with 35 out of 68 low-income countries either in or at high risk of debt distress, which could lead to long-term output declines and increased borrowing costs [3] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests major policy shifts to stabilize macroeconomic and financial conditions, including avoiding overly tight monetary policies and expanding fiscal space [4] - It emphasizes the need for a restructured global financial architecture to lower financing costs and enhance funding access for developing countries [4] - A trade system centered on development is recommended to reduce uncertainties and strengthen multilateral cooperation [4] - Addressing climate and debt risks through expanded climate financing and debt architecture reforms is crucial [4] - Coordination among trade and financial policies is essential to effectively respond to systemic downward risks [4]