【债市观察】央行流动性操作“收短放长” 超长债跌创年内新低

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant fluctuations, particularly in the long-end yields, influenced by macroeconomic narratives and policy expectations, while the equity market remains relatively stable [1][19]. Market Overview - The liquidity in the market was relatively loose at the beginning of December 2025, with the central bank conducting a net bond purchase of 500 billion yuan in November, indicating a "short-term collection and long-term release" strategy [1][14]. - The yield curve has steepened, with the 30-year government bond yield rising over 7 basis points, reflecting a correction in pricing logic for ultra-long bonds [1][4]. Yield Changes - As of December 5, 2025, the yields for various maturities showed mixed movements compared to November 28, 2025, with the 30-year yield increasing by 7.2 basis points to 2.2571% [2][3]. - The 10-year government bond yield also saw fluctuations, closing at 1.8285% after a series of adjustments throughout the week [4][6]. Issuance and Market Activity - In the primary market, a total of 78 bonds were issued, amounting to 430.717 billion yuan, including 4 government bonds worth 223 billion yuan [8][9]. - The issuance of a 30-year government bond at a bidding rate of 2.30% was noted to be higher than the secondary market level, indicating a potential divergence in market expectations [9]. International Context - The U.S. bond market saw a rise in yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by over 12 basis points to 4.14%, influenced by expectations of interest rate changes from the Federal Reserve [10][12]. - Japan's central bank signaled a potential interest rate hike, leading to a rise in Japanese government bond yields, which may affect capital flows and investor sentiment in the global bond market [12][19]. Institutional Insights - Analysts from CITIC Securities expect the central bank to maintain liquidity support through a combination of short and long-term operations, especially as year-end cash withdrawal demands increase [18]. - Industry experts from Industrial Securities highlighted a fundamental shift in macro narratives affecting ultra-long bonds, suggesting a decrease in the certainty of capital gains from such investments [19].