陶冬：美联储新主席势必有大动作

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to a rapid adjustment of policy interest rates to a neutral level and a restructuring of the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] - The market anticipates that if Hassett is nominated and supported by Congress, he may lower the policy interest rate to around 2.5%, with the possibility of further reductions to 2% if economic or market instability arises [3][2] - There is a concern in the bond market regarding Hassett's potential dovish stance, which may lead to significant interest rate cuts and alignment with Trump's fiscal deficit policies, raising fears of extreme monetary decisions for political gain [2][3] Group 2 - The Japanese central bank has signaled a clearer intention to raise interest rates, with recent developments indicating a potential increase in December, as inflation in Japan reaches 3% compared to 2.9% in the U.S. [4][5] - The adjustment of Japan's policy interest rates is seen as necessary to align with international funding costs, especially given Japan's status as a net capital outflow country, which could impact global capital flows and asset prices [4][5] - The long-term effects of Japan's interest rate adjustments may lead to an increase in the attractiveness of Japanese savings rates, potentially repatriating funds that have been held overseas, which would benefit the yen and Japanese assets [5]