Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-08 04:27Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Meituan-W (03690) is facing significant challenges due to intensified competition in the food delivery sector and increased investment in overseas expansion, resulting in a substantial operating loss of 198 billion yuan in Q3 2025, compared to an operating profit of 137 billion yuan in the same period last year [1][3]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 reached 955 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [1]. - Adjusted EBITDA was negative at 148 billion yuan, and adjusted net loss amounted to 160 billion yuan, contrasting with a profit of 128 billion yuan in the previous year [1][3]. - Core local business revenue was 674 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 141 billion yuan [1][3]. - New business revenue grew by 15.9% to 280 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 13 billion yuan [1][3]. Competitive Landscape - The food delivery sector is experiencing fierce competition, leading to increased sales and marketing expenditures, which rose by 90.9% to 343 billion yuan, accounting for 35.9% of total revenue [2][4]. - The operating profit margin for the core local business turned negative to -20.9% due to these increased expenditures [2][4]. - Management anticipates that the competitive landscape will improve in the coming quarters, with a focus on high-value users and high-ticket orders, as the intensity of subsidies is expected to decrease [2][4]. Market Position - Despite the competitive pressures, Meituan maintains a dominant position in the mid-to-high price segments, capturing two-thirds of orders priced above 15 yuan and over 70% of orders priced above 30 yuan [2][4]. - Meituan's structural advantages in order density, algorithm efficiency, and logistics capabilities ensure its leading cost control in the industry, solidifying its long-term competitive position [2][4]. Future Projections - The institution forecasts that Meituan's revenue will reach 366.2 billion yuan, 408.7 billion yuan, and 446.6 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of +8%, +12%, and +9% respectively [3][5]. - Adjusted net profits are projected to be -178 billion yuan, 161 billion yuan, and 462 billion yuan for the same period, with a significant growth rate of +186% anticipated in 2027 [3][5]. - The institution remains optimistic about Meituan's operational capabilities and business barriers, maintaining a "buy" rating based on its long-term exploration in the retail sector [3][5].